Analyses & Opinions

Custom-made poll, 80% approval rating after 2 months of anti-Martelly protest! Even Sweet Mickey doesn’t believe it

Tout Haiti is pleased to present an analysis by Samuel Maxime Editor in chief at the Sentinel.ht formerly defend.ht where he pointed out the incoherence and the fallacy of this fake and unscientific so call poll by Newlink a company that is on Martelly and Lamothe payroll (see snapshot for further information about this company as a provider of service for the Haitian government)

Haiti: Martelly 80% Approval, I doubt it.

By Samuel Maxime ---  Barack Obama, Niclolas Maduro, Dilma Rousseff, Rafael Correa, just to name a few. It could be imagined that these presidents probably woke up to sobering news on Christmas Eve as a blitz of paid public relations agencies would put not the leaders of the United States, Venezuela, Brazil or Ecuador as the highest rated leaders in the hemisphere, but President Michel Martelly of Haiti.

The title of the media blitz was "Haitian President Michel Martelly has highest approval ratings in the Western Hemisphere." A poll taken by the Martelly administration's PR firms, Newlink and Dagmar, reported that his approval rating was 80.5% of the Haitian population.

As each and every one of the countries and leaders in the Western hemisphere contribute greatly to keeping Haiti floating along and quite frankly saving Martelly from calls for his resignation; this media blitz was quite a holiday injury.

Adding insult, following some deeper reflection and analysis of the poll numbers, The Sentinel editorial board found the numbers to have been cooked up, overdone, charred, and downright dishonest. President Martelly's approval rating 80%, I doubt it, and here's why.

It's the wrong way to poll.

The Newlink-Dagmar poll was conducted over the phone by calling 1096 persons from a database of 10,000 phone numbers. We requested the poll report from Newlink and reading the survey methodology we found this line about the ultra critical sampling method:

Sampling method: Random selection of respondents using a database of numbers available to DAGMAR with approximately 10,000 by department.

The question being asked, I'm sure at the White House and in the offices of would-be investors for Haiti, would be:

There are more than 3.2 million mobile phone users in Haiti, why use a database of 10,000 numbers? Why not just randomly call phone numbers?

This question clearly shows that the poll is not representative of the Haitian people. It's not even representative of mobile phone users, sampling from a population of less than a third of 1% of total mobile phone users in Haiti. It's dramatically less representative of the Haitian population with a sample of less than .001% of the Haitian population (that's less than 1% of 1% of the population).

Basically, the individuals called were selected to be called. How? There are a number of theories but I will explain the one which is more likely later in this piece. But for now, we clearly can see that the poll is flawed... because it is fixed.

The right way to poll.

Legitimate polling companies, such as Gallup, also poll by phone but firstly don't use phone systems if less than 80% of the population of that country uses the phone. This is Gallup's policy and could be argued, but their methodology cannot be.

Gallup uses a system called RDD, random-digit-dial which basically means, computers randomly create numbers, therefore sampling, by probability, the entire phone-using population. This proper methodology would have opened up the Newlink-Dagmar poll to a possible 3.2 million Haitians which use mobile phones and not a sham simple database of 10,000 phone users.

Theory on the Selection of 10,000.

The most reliable theory of how these 10,000 numbers were obtained is that these are individuals enrolled in Ti Manman Cherie, Ede Pep – government social assistance programs that credit $20-$25 to disadvantaged persons by phone and gives them bags of rice, spaghetti and canned foods.

It is well known that when these individuals come for these benefits, in scenes of fantastic demagogic glory, their voter ID cards and phone numbers are recorded in database.

Newlink has a long standing relationship with the Martelly administration and clearly points out on its website that one of its clients is the Haitian Ministry of the Interior... as well as Dominican Republic political parties, just to note.

It has been known for awhile that citizens enrolled in the government's social programs have their information kept in the interior ministry's database. This was denounced by opposition parties because this information would be used unethically as advantage for communicating with voters during the political contests.

So what we have is persons, enrolled in the social programs of the administration, in all its demagogic glory, receiving phone calls from persons asking do they approve of the job of President Michel Martelly. It would be hard for one of these individuals to say no, knowing that their identity would not be protected, again, because of the lack of ethics that the Haitian government has been known for.

Some people would consider this poll a scam.

So, what are the real numbers?

I don't know what the real numbers are but if I were a betting man, I would say 37% approval, give or take 5%. This is not a scientific response, just my sense from understanding the pulse of the nation.

Vastly, most presidents, no matter what country, enjoy their highest approval rating when they first enter office. After some time in office, people realize the campaign promises, all, can't be kept, and then the leaders begin to experience a slight decline in approval before the numbers settle.

President Michel Martelly entered the National Palace with 67% approval rating according to Gallup and since then the nation has faced crisis after crisis.

Martelly has spent most of his time in office threatened with loud calls for his resignation. Students have lost hands in protests, tear gas has been in high demand in Haiti, and political stability has not been achieved - mostly self-inflicted by the administration.

Hundreds of Haitians are picked up weekly trying to flee to other countries for a better life. These are just the ones that are caught trying to escape and reported. I imagine there are thousands who cross other borders, while dozens still are being reported dying, drowning in these rickety boats.

There are still hundreds lining up every day outside of the Dominican consulate in Haiti for visas to enter that country, despite the abuse Haitians face.

80% of Haiti lives in poverty, nearly 65% in abject poverty. There has not been job growth in Haiti and the cost of living has climbed under the administration while the value of the Haitian gourde, our currency, against the U.S. dollar has seen its largest decrease.

You may not trust my assumption of a 37%, still generous, approval rating for Michel Martelly but to believe that 80% of the population approves is just plain ridiculous.

...And it's going to cost.

False arrogance doesn't render any political points. In fact, false arrogance costs. The false polling, followed by the high cost campaign to get the word out about the poll, which also insulted President Michel Martelly's regional counterparts is not going to go over well with others.

Even for investors; how could a serious investor, with hundreds of millions of dollars, looking for a place to invest their money securely for financial gain, have faith in a government that would go so far to promote inaccuracy with such bravado? It's not only falsifying facts to the Haitian people but to the world.

And then there's this line in the PR Newswire paid press release:

The government of Haiti has generally received negative ratings in national and international media yet the majority of Haitians appear to strongly disagree with what journalists and pundits have been saying about their government.

While I commend PR Newswire for recognizing that these numbers conflict with all the world knows, its sad that it would attack the media, which is usually the last resort of desperation.

The administration has uncharacteristically refrained from publishing a press release about the poll and has not paid PR Newswire to spread the information in French to the Haitian media; it has mostly been transmitted in English and for this reason, I take some offense to this falsity as I represent The Sentinel, virtually the only English language press covering Haiti in-depth. I'm sure colleagues in my business do too.

At the end of the day, "Ayisyen pa kwe nan blof."

While in Haiti, I spoke with many citizens on politics. Most seemed to not be concerned about what is going on in their government and not willing to talk much about what they see but from a number of people, I heard the exact same phrase, "Ayisyen pa kwe nan blof."

This phrase translates literally to "Haitians don't believe in bluff" but in its essence means, although quiet, the Haitian people are aware of the lies and don't believe in them. They are willing to smile in order to pass the time and not be the victims of arbitrary acts by the government but in their heart, they know what's real and what's not. This does not translate well for the future of this regime when election time comes around again.

Samuel Maxime
Sentinel.ht